The uncertainty arising from the poor predictability of overpressure and its impact on drilling costs and prospect evaluation is a global problem facing all explorationists. There exists no industry consistent methodology for assessing these uncertainties and associated risks. This paper illustrates such a decision and risk analysis methodology through reference to the application of the process to a specific exploration prospect with a perceived high risk of overpressure. Although the case history was assessed prior to drilling, the process has the potential to be developed into a robust framework within which real-time decisions can be made. The risk analysis technique...

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