Providing quantitative statements about the risk associated with reservoir exploration and production has become increasingly important in modern-day reservoir management. At the exploration or early production stage, with limited well-log and production data in hand, the first-order uncertainty is often dominated by the quality of the seismic data and the accuracy of conceptual geologic models showing facies geometry and connectivity. Seismic may provide quality information on reservoir geometry and large-scale trends of facies such as net-to-gross variations. As a complement to seismic, detailed geologic interpretations of facies association and geometry may provide heterogeneity information at all scales of the reservoir,...

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