Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is a strange case in classical scientific research: usually, scientists modify their models to fit the data better; in PSHA, it is the opposite.

In its original formulation, PSHA requires a Poisson distribution of earthquakes (Cornell, 1968). To achieve this goal, a procedure called declustering is usually applied to seismic catalogs. Declustering algorithms remove aftershocks (and foreshocks) from seismicity, leaving a Poissonian catalog (Gardner and Knopoff, 1974). The assumption under this procedure is that only mainshocks produce significant shakings and damage. However, observations of seismic sequences of the last decades demonstrate...

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