Hashimoto (2022a,b) questions an official (Earthquake Research Committee [ERC], 2013) estimate that the next great Nankai trough earthquake had a 60%–70% chance of occurring between 2013 and 2043. That estimate relied on a “time‐predictable” model, a presumption that the time to the next earthquake increases with the seismic slip of its predecessor. Hashimoto advised assuming greater geophysical ignorance by basing conditional probabilities solely on series of earthquake dates. Here, I apply this latter strategy to the five Nankai histories considered by the ERC. For each of those five alternate chronicles, I restrict the choice of estimation...

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