Abstract

The Xianshuihe fault is a remarkable strike‐slip fault characterized by high slip rate (10  mm/yr) and frequent strong historical earthquakes. The potential for future large earthquakes on this fault is enhanced by the 2008 Mw 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake. Previous works gave little attention to the probabilities of multisegment ruptures on the Xianshuihe fault. In this study, we build five possible multisegment rupture combination models for the Xianshuihe fault. The fault slip rates and historical earthquakes are used as input constraints to model the future seismicity on the fault segments and test whether the rupture combination models are appropriate. The segment combination model, based essentially on historical ruptures, has produced the seismicity rates most consistent with the historical records, although the model with ruptures on both the entire northern section and southern section should also be considered. The peak ground acceleration values with a return period of 475 yr calculated using the modeled rates on the Xianshuihe fault for both two models are on average larger than the values of the China Seismic Ground Motion Parameters Zonation Map.

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