In October 2019, a Japanese newspaper—the Chunichi Shimbun—published a series of articles on the 30 yr probability of the occurrence of earthquake along the Nankai trough, southwest Japan, entitled with “Inside Story of 80% of the Nankai Trough” (Ozawa, 2019a). These articles cast doubt on the estimate and criticized the process of issuance of probability, reporting that “probability is inflated” (Ozawa, 2019a).

The Earthquake Research Committee (ERC), one of the principal committees in the Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion (HERP), Japan, has been issuing 30 yr probabilities of occurrence of earthquakes in subduction zones and...

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