ABSTRACT

We developed a hybrid time‐dependent seismic‐hazard model for application to the recovery of Canterbury, New Zealand, following the Canterbury earthquake sequence. We combined earthquake‐clustering models of three timescales (short‐term, medium‐term, and long‐term) to develop a model that accounts for the significant epistemic uncertainty in the earthquake rates. For the probabilistic seismic‐hazard calculations, these models were coupled with two ground‐motion prediction equations. The weights for the construction of the hybrid model and for the logic tree were obtained using a structured expert elicitation process. Forecasts from the model have been used to provide earthquake probabilities to a range of end users on timescales from 1 day to 50 years. Additionally, the 50‐year hazard forecast has been used in the revision of the New Zealand building design guidelines and other aspects of the reconstruction of Christchurch.

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