Classical probabilistic seismic-hazard models (Cornell, 1968), which typically refer to the homogeneous Poisson process for earthquake occurrence, are not able to model explicitly the space-time clustering of earthquakes. Clustering may be particularly evident in time windows of days and weeks (e.g., Kagan and Knopoff, 1987; Ogata, 1988), but it may be still appreciable in the medium term, because the time sequences to large earthquakes may last long (Kagan and Jackson, 1991; Parsons, 2002; Faenza et al., 2003; Marzocchi and Lombardi, 2008). The modeling of such a space–time clustering is an...
When Is the Probability of a Large Earthquake Too Small?
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Warner Marzocchi, Iunio Iervolino, Massimiliano Giorgio, Giuseppe Falcone; When Is the Probability of a Large Earthquake Too Small?. Seismological Research Letters 2015;; 86 (6): 1674–1678. doi: https://doi.org/10.1785/0220150129
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