I have found myself repeating this famous Box (1980) quote a lot lately, so much so that one colleague said he was going to keep a tally (perhaps implying that it is getting annoying). Maybe explaining the three main reasons here will help shut me up.

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Building a new model, especially one used for policy purposes, takes considerable time, effort, and resources. In justifying such expenditures, one inevitably spends a lot of time denigrating previous models. For example, in pitching the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3) (http://www.WGCEP.org/UCERF3), criticisms of the previous model included fault‐segmentation assumptions and...

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