Ground‐motion prediction equations (GMPEs) describe the amplitude of shaking as a function of earthquake magnitude, distance from the source, site conditions, and sometimes other variables. Amplitudes are predicted for peak ground acceleration and velocity and for such measures of engineering interest as the response of a damped oscillator of a specified natural period. Selection of appropriate GMPEs is a critical step in a probabilistic seismic‐hazard analysis (PSHA), and therefore their selection is an issue of major practical significance. For PSHA applications, we are interested in more than just a best estimate of the GMPE; equally important is the range of...
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