The inclusion of epistemic uncertainties, generally via logic trees (Kulkarni et al., 1984), within probabilistic seismic‐hazard assessments (PSHAs) is becoming standard for all types of studies (commercial, governmental, or research; site specific, national, regional, or global). Consequently many studies publish expected ground motions for a given annual frequency of exceedance (AFE) or return period derived from the hazard curves for the mean, median, and various fractiles (percentiles). The spread of these values represents the uncertainty captured in the results (the greater the spread the higher the uncertainty). For example, Figure 1 shows the distribution of AFE for...
Comparison of the Ranges of Uncertainty Captured in Different Seismic‐Hazard Studies
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John Douglas, Thomas Ulrich, Didier Bertil, Julien Rey; Comparison of the Ranges of Uncertainty Captured in Different Seismic‐Hazard Studies. Seismological Research Letters 2014;; 85 (5): 977–985. doi: https://doi.org/10.1785/0220140084
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