Operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) is the practice of continual updating and dissemination of physics‐based short‐term (days) probabilities for the occurrence of damaging earthquakes. Although fully appreciating the noble intention of OEF and the scientific merits of the seismicity analyses it employs, we are concerned that its wide promotion may lead the public to believe that earthquake preparedness can fluctuate at timescales of days or weeks.

Scientists who support OEF do recognize the importance of long‐term (decades and centuries) forecast. Jordan (2013) points out that long‐term forecasting can “guide earthquake safety provisions of building codes, performance‐based seismic design, and other risk‐reducing...

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