Upon hearing about the devastating 22 February 2011 M 6.1 Christchurch earthquake, I remembered the nearby 4 September 2010 M 7.0 event and thought, “It’s a bit late for this to be an aftershock,” followed quickly by, “Don’t be stupid.” The first thought was based on the modified-Omori law (Utsu, 1969) in which the rate of aftershocks, exceeding a particular magnitude, decays as  
n(t)=K(t+c)p,
where n is the number of earthquakes per unit time as a function of time (t) and K, c,...

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