On 6 April 2009, a strong earthquake of magnitude Mw = 6.3 (red star in Figure 1) shook L'Aquila (southern Italy), causing massive damage and losses. Approximately 300 people died and more than 1,500 were injured. Following the mainshock there were many debates concerning the predictability of the earthquake. At present, earthquakes cannot be predicted (that is, there do not exist standard methods to determine with accuracy when the next earthquake will occur at a specific location and how large it will be) but only forecasted (that is, scientists can estimate the probability of occurrence of an earthquake...
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