Despite the fact that it isn't compatible with the elastic rebound theory of earthquake faulting, the Poisson model is widely used to describe the temporal occurrence of earthquakes in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) studies for various reasons. The most important of these is that the Poisson model is simple, yet adequate enough to describe a complex phenomenon. The Poisson model prescribes that earthquakes occur randomly in time with no “memory” of the time since any preceding event (Kramer 1996). Ben-Menahem (1960) and also Gardner and Knopoff (1974) demonstrated that sequences of earthquakes are...

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