It is now generally accepted within the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) community that ground motion has to be treated as a random variable (Abrahamson 2000). As a consequence, the calculation of ground-motion exceedance rates for different levels of ground-motion intensity, plots of which are commonly referred to as hazard curves, requires an integration over the full ground-motion distribution. The spread of this distribution is known to strongly influence the estimated hazard levels, in particular at low exceedance rates. This is one reason why modern probabilistic seismic-hazard studies, in which this spread is usually accounted for via the...

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