The Virtual Seismologist (VS) method is a Bayesian approach to regional network-based earthquake early warning (EEW) that estimates earthquake magnitude, location, and the distribution of peak ground motion using observed ground motion amplitudes, predefined prior information, and appropriate attenuation relationships (Cua 2005; Cua and Heaton 2007). The application of Bayes's theorem in earthquake early warning (Cua 2005) states that the most probable source estimate at any given time is a combination of contributions from prior information (possibilities include network topology or station health status, regional hazard maps, earthquake forecasts, the Gutenberg-Richter magnitude-frequency relationship) and a...

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