We present a five-year forecast of southern California earthquakes with magnitudes 5.0 and greater. The forecast uses earthquake data only, with no explicit use of tectonic, geologic, or geodetic information. The forecast is based on observed regularity of earthquake occurrence rather than on any physical model. The earthquake rate density (probability per unit area, time, and magnitude) is assumed constant in time. We estimate it as the sum of contributions from all magnitude 5 and larger earthquakes in our catalog, which for large quakes extends from 1800 to the present. The contribution from each quake is inversely proportional to epicentral...
A Testable Five-Year Forecast of Moderate and Large Earthquakes in Southern California Based on Smoothed Seismicity
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Yan Y. Kagan, David D. Jackson, Yufang Rong; A Testable Five-Year Forecast of Moderate and Large Earthquakes in Southern California Based on Smoothed Seismicity. Seismological Research Letters ; 78 (1): 94–98. doi: https://doi.org/10.1785/gssrl.78.1.94
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