A RELM Earthquake Forecast Based on Pattern Informatics

James R. Holliday; Chien-chih Chen; Kristy F. Tiampo; John B. Rundle; Donald L. Turcotte; Andrea Donnellan

doi:10.1785/gssrl.78.1.87

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Research Article| January 01, 2007

A RELM Earthquake Forecast Based on Pattern Informatics

James R. Holliday;

James R. Holliday

Center for Computational Science and Engineering  University of California—Davis  One Shields Avenue  Davis, California 95616-8572 USA  [email protected]  (J.R.H.)

1

Department of Physics, University of California, Davis, USA

2

Computational Science and Engineering Center, University of California, Davis, USA

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Chien-chih Chen;

Chien-chih Chen

Center for Computational Science and Engineering  University of California—Davis  One Shields Avenue  Davis, California 95616-8572 USA  [email protected]  (J.R.H.)

2

Computational Science and Engineering Center, University of California, Davis, USA

3

National Central University, Taiwan

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Kristy F. Tiampo;

Kristy F. Tiampo

Center for Computational Science and Engineering  University of California—Davis  One Shields Avenue  Davis, California 95616-8572 USA  [email protected]  (J.R.H.)

4

Department of Earth Sciences, University of Western Ontario, Canada

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John B. Rundle;

John B. Rundle

Center for Computational Science and Engineering  University of California—Davis  One Shields Avenue  Davis, California 95616-8572 USA  [email protected]  (J.R.H.)

1

Department of Physics, University of California, Davis, USA

2

Computational Science and Engineering Center, University of California, Davis, USA

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Donald L. Turcotte;

Donald L. Turcotte

Center for Computational Science and Engineering  University of California—Davis  One Shields Avenue  Davis, California 95616-8572 USA  [email protected]  (J.R.H.)

5

Geology Department, University of California, Davis, USA

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Andrea Donnellan

Center for Computational Science and Engineering  University of California—Davis  One Shields Avenue  Davis, California 95616-8572 USA  [email protected]  (J.R.H.)

6

NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, USA

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Author and Article Information

James R. Holliday

1

Department of Physics, University of California, Davis, USA

2

Computational Science and Engineering Center, University of California, Davis, USA

Center for Computational Science and Engineering  University of California—Davis  One Shields Avenue  Davis, California 95616-8572 USA  [email protected]  (J.R.H.)

Chien-chih Chen

2

Computational Science and Engineering Center, University of California, Davis, USA

3

National Central University, Taiwan

Center for Computational Science and Engineering  University of California—Davis  One Shields Avenue  Davis, California 95616-8572 USA  [email protected]  (J.R.H.)

Kristy F. Tiampo

4

Department of Earth Sciences, University of Western Ontario, Canada

Center for Computational Science and Engineering  University of California—Davis  One Shields Avenue  Davis, California 95616-8572 USA  [email protected]  (J.R.H.)

John B. Rundle

1

Department of Physics, University of California, Davis, USA

2

Computational Science and Engineering Center, University of California, Davis, USA

Center for Computational Science and Engineering  University of California—Davis  One Shields Avenue  Davis, California 95616-8572 USA  [email protected]  (J.R.H.)

Donald L. Turcotte

5

Geology Department, University of California, Davis, USA

Center for Computational Science and Engineering  University of California—Davis  One Shields Avenue  Davis, California 95616-8572 USA  [email protected]  (J.R.H.)

Andrea Donnellan

6

NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, USA

Center for Computational Science and Engineering  University of California—Davis  One Shields Avenue  Davis, California 95616-8572 USA  [email protected]  (J.R.H.)

Publisher: Seismological Society of America

First Online: 09 Mar 2017

Online ISSN: 1938-2057

Print ISSN: 0895-0695

Seismological Research Letters (2007) 78 (1): 87–93.

https://doi.org/10.1785/gssrl.78.1.87

There have been a wide variety of approaches applied to forecasting earthquakes (Turcotte 1991; Kanamori 2003). These approaches can be divided into two general classes. The first is based on empirical observations of precursory changes. Examples include precursory seismic activity, precursory ground motions, and many others. The second approach is based on statistical patterns of seismicity. Neither approach has been able to provide reliable short-term forecasts (days to months) on a consistent basis.

Although short-term predictions are not available, longer-term seismic-hazard assessments can be made. A large fraction of all earthquakes occur in the vicinity of plate...

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