We have developed time-independent forecasts for California assuming that small earthquakes can be used to map the distribution of large damaging earthquakes, as suggested by Kafka and Levin (2000). Indeed, large earthquakes often nucleate in areas that have a large density of small events.

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We have first declustered the catalog to remove large fluctuations of seismic activity that do not represent the long-term average. We have then estimated the spatial density of seismicity using a kernel method to smooth the location of magnitude M ≥ 2 earthquakes. Note that our model only predicts hypo-centers, not rupture areas. Clearly,...

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