Seismic hazard analysis (SHA) requires two different types of models: (1) an earthquake rupture forecast, which gives the probability of all possible earthquake ruptures of concern throughout the region over a given time span; and (2) a ground-motion model that provides an estimate of shaking at a site for each earthquake rupture. This special issue of Seismological Research Letters (SRL) presents a variety of the first type—earthquake rupture forecasts. But let's begin with some history.

The 30-year, time-dependent forecast published by the 1995 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP 1995), also known as the Phase-2...

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