Motivated by the public's desire to learn as much as possible following the occurrence of damaging events, we have developed a methodology to spatially map the probability of earthquake occurrence in the next 24 hours. We start with the simple aftershock model of Reasenberg and Jones (1989, 1990, 1994):
\[\ {\lambda}(t,M)=\frac{10^{a^{{^\prime}}+b(M_{m}-M)}}{(t+c)^{P}},{\ }M{\geq}M_{c}\]
(1)
where λ(t, M) is the rate of aftershocks larger than a magnitude threshold, Mc, and occurring at time t. The constants á and b are derived from the Gutenberg-Richter relationship (Gutenberg and Richter 1944), and p...
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