In this paper we propose simple methods for estimating long-term average seismicity of any region, based on a local kinematic model of surface velocities and an existing global calibration of plate-boundary seismicity. We apply the method to California and obtain a long-term forecast of seismicity that exceeds the levels seen in several 20th-century catalogs.

This contribution is the third in a series describing a project informally known as Seismic Hazard Inferred from Tectonics (SHIFT). Its goal is to realize the promise of plate tectonic theory to provide long-term seismicity forecasts (and, eventually, seismic hazard forecasts) more reliable than those based...

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