Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is the methodology used to estimate how often some chosen level of earthquake ground motion can be reached or exceeded at one or more places of interest. It synthesizes knowledge about where earthquakes occur, how often they occur, and how big they can be; knowledge of the ground motion that is excited by earthquakes and how it changes with earthquake magnitude, distance, and (occasionally) azimuth; and the uncertainties that attend both the models of seismogenesis and the models of ground-motion excitation/propagation (epistemic uncertainty), as well as the intrinsic variability in the way earthquakes actually occur...

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