Earthquake prediction is inherently statistical. Although some people continue to think of earthquake prediction as the specification of the time, place, and magnitude of a future earthquake, it has been clear for at least two decades that this is an unrealistic and unreasonable definition. The reality is that earthquake prediction starts from long-term forecasts of place and magnitude, with very approximate time constraints, and progresses, at least in principle, to a gradual narrowing of the time window as data and understanding permit. The analogy to catching a rabbit in an overgrown confined field may be appropriate. You do not just...

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