Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) provides the conceptual framework for estimating the likelihood that something of concern related to earthquake shaking will occur over a specified time period. Based on more than thirty years of research and development (e.g., Cornell, 1968; Algermissen et al., 1982; SSHAC, 1997), PSHA has become a standard tool for combining information on earthquake occurrence, seismic radiation, and shaking response to produce hazard estimates, including the U.S. Geological Survey's national seismic hazard maps (Frankel et al., 1996, 1997). PSHA methods, while now mature, continue to evolve as scientists...

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