The devastating 1999 M 7.4 Izmit, Turkey earthquake was “no surprise” (Reilinger et al., 2000) because it occurred as part of a sequence of earthquakes that have ruptured nearly the entire length of the strike-slip North Anatolian Fault zone (> 1,000 km) since 1912. The 1999 rupture occurred on a segment previously identified as a seismic gap (Toksöz et al., 1979) and recently studied to understand mechanisms of stress transfer and earthquake triggering along strike-slip faults (Stein et al., 1997). We suggest that an analogous rupture sequence spanning the last few...

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