ABSTRACT

The Korean Peninsula is located in a stable intraplate region with low‐seismicity rates and long recurrence intervals of major earthquakes. Recent moderate‐size earthquakes demonstrate possible occurrence of seismic damages in the Korean Peninsula. A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis based on instrumental and historical seismicity is applied for the Korean Peninsula. Three seismotectonic province models are used for area sources. Seven ground‐motion prediction equations calibrated for bedrock condition are considered. Fault source models are not applied due to poor identification of active faults. A 500 yr long historical record of earthquakes includes moderate and large earthquakes of long recurrence intervals. The influences of model parameters are reflected through a logic‐tree scheme. The process and results are verified by Monte Carlo ground‐motion level simulation and benchmark tests. Relatively high‐seismic hazards are modeled in the northwestern, south‐central, and southeastern Korean Peninsula. The horizontal peak ground accelerations reach 0.06, 0.09, 0.13, 0.21, and 0.28g for periods of 25, 50, 100, 250, and 500 yr, respectively, with exceedance probability of 10%. Successive moderate‐size earthquakes since the 11 March 2011 Tohoku–Oki megathrust earthquake have temporarily increased the seismic hazards in the southeastern peninsula.

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