Abstract

Ground-motion prediction (attenuation) models predict the probability distributions of spectral acceleration values for a specified earthquake event. These models provide only marginal distributions, however; they do not specify correlations among spectral accelerations with differing periods or orientations. In this article a large number of strong ground motions are used to empirically estimate these correlations, and nonlinear regression is used to develop approximate analytical equations for their evaluation. Because the correlations apply to residuals from a ground- motion prediction, they are in principle dependent on the ground-motion prediction model used. The observed correlations do not vary significantly when the underlying model is changed, however, suggesting that the predictions are applicable regardless of the model chosen by the analyst. The analytical correlation predictions improve upon previous predictions of correlations at differing periods in a randomly oriented horizontal ground-motion component. For correlations within a vertical ground motion or across orthogonal components of a ground motion, these results are believed to be the first of their kind.

The resulting correlation coefficient predictions are useful for a range of problems related to seismic hazard and the response of structures. Past uses of previous correlation predictions are described, and future applications of the new predictions are proposed. These applications will allow analysts to better understand the properties of single- and multicomponent earthquake ground motions.

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