Abstract

A seismic hazard assessment for Cuba and the surrounding areas has been performed in response to a possible revision of the national building code. The hazard assessment has been done according to the standard methodology adopted by the Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program and by introducing some computational techniques used for the seismic hazard map of Italy. Problems of earthquake catalog treatment, attenuation of peak ground acceleration and macroseismic intensity, as well as seismic source definition have been rigorously analyzed. Thirty-six seismogenic zones have been identified and characterized from a seismicity point of view. The present study offers a picture of the seismic hazard on Cuban territory based on historical seismicity and the benefits drawn from the most recent international investigations on the subject, such as the logic-tree approach used to represent the inevitable uncertainties encountered through the choice of attenuation relation. The final results are maps of the expected shaking with a 475-year return period in terms of peak ground acceleration and macroseismic intensity, which point out the high hazard along the southern coast of Cuba, where the expected ground motion, without the aleatoric uncertainty in the attenuation relations, is between 0.20g and 0.30g. The rest of the island is characterized by values representing less severe shaking.

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