Abstract

Great earthquakes along the Philippine Sea interplate boundary, central Honshu, usually rupture a large portion of the Nankai Trough and Suruga Trough. However, the 1944 Tonankai and 1946 Nankaido earthquakes, the most recent great Philippine Sea events, did not rupture the Suruga Trough. Mogi proposed that strain release from the 1891 Nobi earthquake is responsible for the apparently premature northeast termination of the 1944 rupture zone. Using a recently derived fault model of the 1891 earthquake, combined with a suitable rheological model of central Honshu, we quantify both the inland and offshore consequences of the Nobi earthquake. North of the Median Tectonic Line, the co-seismic plus postseismic stress changes of the Nobi earthquake promoted the failure of faults which subsequently ruptured in the decades following 1891. In contrast, along the Philippine Sea interplate boundary, the co-seismic plus postseismic strain release of the Nobi earthquake during the decades following 1891 has delayed the anticipated Tokai earthquake by at least 20 yr.

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