Abstract

This paper presents a phenomenological stochastic model for earthquake recurrence processes involving physical interaction among fault segments. Slip on one segment may reduce (or increase) the time to the next event on another segment or possibly induce an immediate slip on that segment as well. The gross behavior of this model is first observed through simulations; temporal and spatial disorder are observed even when the stochastic aspects are minimized.

To estimate the strength of these interactions, we derive factors from the output of three-dimensional elastic dislocation analyses, relating induced stress changes to temporal changes in next-event dates.

In a final section, we derive approximate analytical expressions and numerical results for future probabilistic earthquake risk and site hazard, conditional on the elapsed times since events on all relevant fault segments and on the number of events since that may have caused stress changes (interactions).

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