abstract

Short-term earthquake prediction represents a more difficult scientific problem than most of us thought 5 yr ago when the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program commenced, and our progress has not been as rapid as initially hoped. At this point, reasons can be cited for both encouragement and discouragement. Despite slow progress, the goal of short-term prediction remains realistic, and research should continue vigorously, albeit with some changes in scientific strategy. In contrast, progress in long-term prediction and hazard evaluation has been far more rapid than initially envisaged.

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