A method for determining tsunami hazard is presented using simple seismological and hydrodynamic models.
The seismological model assumes that submarine earthquakes of the dipstrike type can occur, with equal likelihood, anywhere along a well-defined straight fault and that the site under consideration lies on the perpendicular bisector of and far removed from the fault. The ground dislocation is circular in the horizontal plane, and the vertical offset is uniform. The radius of the circle and the vertical offset are related to seismic moment which is assumed to be random.
The hydrodynamic model is based on linear dispersive wave theory. It is assumed that the earth is flat, water depth constant, and ocean infinite in horizontal extent. The maximum elevation of water surface of the leading wave is related to ground motion characteristics (or seismic moment) and the distance from the site to the source.
The probability of the event that the water elevation at a site exceeds an arbitrary but specified level is then derived and computed. A sensitivity study is performed to determine the importance of various parameters.