abstract

A stochastic model of strain accumulation and release at plate boundaries is proposed. The model leads to the generalized Gutenberg-Richter relation

 
InG(x)=constantBexp(αx)

where G is the cumulative exceedence of a magnitude x. This relation tends asymptotically to the original Gutenberg-Richter relation in the low-magnitude range; at high magnitudes it provides estimates of the probability of occurrence which are significantly more realistic than the Gutenberg-Richter relation. Excellent agreement is obtained with the data of the Chinese earthquake catalog covering a time period of 2,753 years.

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