abstract

A deterministic analysis employing a map of active faults and using Schnabel and Seed (1973) attenuation curves suggests mean expected peak accelerations range from 0.2 to 0.7 g at various locations at the Nevada Test Site for M = 7 maximum magnitude. Geological evidence suggests that recurrence intervals for these magnitudes average several thousand years. Hazard analyses for upper and lower bounds of expected test site seismicity indicate that accelerations of the size given by the deterministic analysis have return periods of 1,500 to 15,000 years. If the variability in peak accelerations for a given distance and magnitude are taken into account, the accelerations for return periods of 1,500 to 15,000 years would be larger by a factor of 3 than the deterministic accelerations.

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