abstract

Numerical simulation of earthquake occurrence using a one-dimensional fault model demonstrates that (a) the linear behavior of the magnitude-frequency relation is not an immutable law but rather is dependent on the mechanical properties of the fault, (b) “randomness” as measured by adherence to Poissonian statistics does not preclude useful prediction by statistical means, (c) the rate of occurrence of simulated earthquakes is in good agreement with the Kolmogorov model in which seismicity is related primarily to the stored elastic energy in a fault system, and (d) the occurrence of foreshocks and aftershocks can be well explained by the occurrence of stress-induced crack nucleation.

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