Abstract

By combining the declustered catalogs of 96 individual fault zones at various stages in their seismic cycles in the Chinese mainland into one normalized cycle, we greatly extend the seismic record beyond both the short historical and the modern instrumental observation periods compared with the much longer average recurrence interval, and thus create a complete seismicity picture during one seismic cycle. The temporal pattern of the integrated catalog demonstrates that the occurrence rate of M5.0 events near to the occurrence time of the maximum‐size earthquake of an individual fault zone is about maximum three times larger than at the middle stage, suggesting that it more closely follows a quadratic distribution, rather than a Poisson distribution, and strong foreshocks and aftershocks can last for several hundred years or even longer on intraplate faults, that is, about 20% of a seismic cycle. Besides, during one complete cycle, the number of events M5.0 is about seven, which increases with the growing maximum magnitude and tends to decreases with the increasing slip rate of an individual fault zone. The results derived from Monte Carlo simulations and statistical analyses for magnitude distributions show that most of individual fault zones have a significant magnitude gap between the maximum‐size event and the second largest event; typically the second largest earthquake magnitude is M6.0, implying that the gap increases with the maximum‐size earthquake magnitude; the magnitude gap between the maximum‐size earthquake and the maximal magnitude of other declustered events and the magnitude difference between the maximum‐size earthquake and its largest aftershock are similar.

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