Signal arrival‐time estimation plays a critical role in a variety of downstream seismic analyses, including location estimation and source characterization. Any arrival‐time errors propagate through subsequent data‐processing results. In this article, we detail a general framework for refining estimated seismic signal arrival times along with full estimation of their associated uncertainty. Using the standard short‐term average/long‐term average threshold algorithm to identify a search window, we demonstrate how to refine the pick estimate through two different approaches. In both cases, new waveform realizations are generated through bootstrap algorithms to produce full a posteriori estimates of uncertainty of onset arrival time of the seismic signal. The onset arrival uncertainty estimates provide additional data‐derived information from the signal and have the potential to influence seismic analysis along several fronts.

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