Progressive approaches to the incorporation of directivity effects into the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis require a reliable model to be able to predict the pulse observing probability. This study proposes a new model that predicts the probability of observing pulse‐like ground motion at a site, using the source rupture characteristics as the predictor variables. As a result, a new 3D source‐to‐site geometry is used to define a directivity parameter. The resulting predictive model can be incorporated into the near‐fault seismic hazard analysis. This proposed prediction model is validated by comparing the estimated results with those observed at near‐field stations during previous events. These comparative results have shown that the proposed model agrees well with the available near‐fault ground‐motion data from different earthquake scenarios.

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