Low‐seismicity regions such as the United Kingdom (UK) pose a challenge for seismic hazard analysis in view of the limited amount of locally recorded data available. In particular, ground‐motion prediction is faced with the problem that most of the instrumental observations available have been recorded at large distances from small earthquakes. Direct extrapolation of the results of regression on these data to the range of magnitudes and distances relevant for the seismic hazard analysis of engineered structures generally leads to unsatisfactory predictions.

The present study presents a new ground‐motion prediction equation (GMPE) for the UK in terms of peak ground acceleration (PGA), peak ground velocity (PGV), and 5% damped pseudospectral acceleration (PSA), based on the results of numerical simulations using a stochastic point‐source model calibrated with parameters derived from local weak‐motion data. The predictions from this model are compared with those of previous GMPEs based on UK data, other GMPEs derived for stable continental regions (SCRs), as well as recent GMPEs developed for the wider European area.

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