Abstract

In this study, we use extreme value theory based on Gumbel‐equation derivations to estimate the Gutenberg–Richter a and b parameters for Taiwan. Data are from the augmented, homogenized (in terms of moment magnitude), historic catalog for Taiwan. The island is divided into grids of 0.2° latitude by 0.2° longitude, and Gumbel type 1 statistical analysis is applied. The values of a and b are then used to determine the probability of large earthquakes (Mw≥6.0) occurring at each grid. The results show two relatively high probability paths for large earthquakes, one extending from Hsinchu southward to Taichung, Chiayi, and Tainan in western Taiwan and the other from Ilan southward to Hualian and Taitung in eastern Taiwan, both of which are characterized by low b‐values. It indicates that future earthquakes can be expected along these paths characterized by low b‐values. Additionally, maximum peak ground acceleration and maximum peak ground velocity (determined from respective attenuation laws and a gridding regimen of 0.1° latitude by 0.1° longitude for Taiwan) follow similar paths to that of the low b‐values.

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