Issues

Opinion
Predictable Debate
We scientists often make the philosophical argument that technically informed debate on socially relevant issues is in the public interest. Left unsaid is how disagreement is resolved under the glare of public scrutiny, and in what venue. It will surely not have escaped the notice of the SRL readership that “earthquake prediction” is being debated in the peer-reviewed as well as the public press, not to mention professional meetings and workshops, and that the debate has become polarized, at least from the lay point of view. Can earthquakes be predicted? This is what society wants to know, yet most of us think that this question is not properly posed. But declaring earthquakes to be “unpredictable” does a disservice to the state of our science and, quite frankly, doesn't do the public any good. However, do we structure our answer by hedging, or do we try to reformulate the question? And...
News & Notes
NEWS & NOTES
THE 69TH ANNUAL MEETING OF THE EASTERN SECTION OF THE SSA The 69th Annual Meeting of the Eastern Section of the Seismological Society of America (ES-SSA 97) will be held on October 5–8, 1997 in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada. The meeting web site is located at http://www.seismo.nrcan.gc.ca/esssa97. This web site is also accessible from the Society's web site at http://www.seismosoc.org/ssa/. Additionally, information about the meeting is listed in the ES-SSA part of this issue of SRL. ANNUAL MEETING OF THE COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL SEISMIC SYSTEM A two-and-a-half-day meeting of the Council of the National Seismic System (CNSS) was held February 13–15, 1997 at the Center for Earthquake Research and Information, the University of Memphis, in Memphis, TN. Almost 80 individuals representing 28 regional networks and the U.S. National Network attended. Steve Malone from the University of Washington replaced Walter Arabasz as Council Chairman and Harley Benz...
Source Time Functions
INTRODUCTION Seismologists have always striven to determine earthquake parameters as soon as possible after an earthquake occurs. Now there are several research groups that routinely “broadcast” their rapid determinations of earthquake location, focal mechanism, size, and depth. We report on our efforts to produce and “broadcast” source time functions of earthquakes. The steady march of technical progress in seismology has provided first for the rapid determination of epicenter and magnitude (e.g., from the National Earthquake Information Center [NEIC] and various regional networks). Technical requirements for this effort are that several stations have their output telemetered to some location where the arrivals can be picked and that at least one of these stations be well-calibrated so that magnitude can be estimated. This technical level and service has been available for several decades. In some cases, this procedure has been completely automated with earthquake alarms issued with no human intervention. It is...
Earthquake Occurrence in the Reno-Carson City Urban Corridor
INTRODUCTION The Reno-Carson City urban corridor is the second most populated region in Nevada and lies in one of the most seismically active parts of the state. This has prompted the development of an earthquake scenario (dePolo et at., 1996) to assist with earthquake preparedness and emergency response planning within the corridor's communities. As part of this effort, we have estimated probabilities of a potentially damaging earthquake affecting the scenario area (see Figure 1) over a 50-year time period. This paper briefly describes local historical earthquakes of magnitude ≥ 6 and compares their occurrence rates with b-value curve extrapolations from the instrumental time period and with preliminary estimates based on local fault activity rates. HISTORICAL EARTHQUAKES Thirteen earthquakes of magnitude 6 or greater have occurred in the scenario region since 1850 (see Figure 1 and Table 1). These events are briefly described in the Appendix. For many of the earlier...
The October 9, 1995 Manzanillo, Mexico Earthquake
INTRODUCTION On Monday, October 9, 1995, at 9:36 am local time (3:36 pm GMT), an earthquake with an epicenter located at 19.25° N and 104.19° W, a surface-wave magnitude of Ms = 7.3 (USGS) and a moment magnitude Mw = 7.6 (USGS) struck the area near the town of Manzanillo, Colima, affecting the southwestern part of Jalisco and northern part of Colima, Mexico (Figure 1). In the epicentral region, along 80 km of coastal area, about 17,000 structures in different villages and cities either collapsed or were heavily damaged, affecting nearly 45,000 inhabitants. At least 48 people in the city of Manzanillo, Colima and 10 in the affected area of Jalisco were killed by this earthquake. Damage caused by strong ground motion and the resultant tsunami and liquefaction were reported at several communities of Jalisco and Colima. Some of the most damaged were: Cihuatlán, Jaluco, Melaque, Barra de Navidad, La...
A New Digital Accelerograph Network for El Salvador
INTRODUCTION There are few countries whose geography and history have been so affected by earthquake and volcanic activity as El Salvador, the smallest republic in Central America (Figure 1). The capital, San Salvador (Figure 2), has the unenviable claim of being the Latin American city most frequently damaged by earthquakes. Since 1700, San Salvador has been severely damaged by earthquakes on at least 14 occasions (Harlow et al., 1993). The last destructive earthquake to affect San Salvador occurred on 10 October 1986, causing about 1,500 deaths and extensive damage over much of the city, as well as an economic loss equivalent to 31% of El Salvador's GNP (Coburn and Spence, 1992). El Salvador has been the focus of several studies of seismicity and seismic hazard, and the San Salvador earthquake of October 1986 generated renewed interest in the area. Three major hazard studies have produced seismic zonifications of El Salvador...
Strong Earthquakes: A Challenge for Geosciences and Civil Engineering—A New Collaborative Research Center in Germany
INTRODUCTION The Collaborative Research Center (CRC) 461 Strong Earthquakes: A Challenge for Geosciences and Civil Engineering has been funded by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (German Research Foundation) and is supported by the State of Baden-Würtemberg and the University of Karlsruhe. Collaborative Research Centers (SonderForschungsBereiche—SFB) aim at strategic research on issues that require intensive cooperation across various disciplines. CRCs form a framework for the development of these interactions and are expected to operate with a long-term (6 to 12 years) perspective. CRCs are peer-reviewed every three years. CRC 461 was established in July 1996 and aims at strategic research in the field of strong earthquakes with a regional focus on earthquakes and earthquake engineering in Romania. OBJECTIVES The focus of the research program is the strong earthquake activity in the Romanian Vrancea area (Figure 1). Over several centuries strong earthquakes in this area have caused a high toll of casualties and damage...
A Case Study in Earthquake Hazards Education: Preparing Nurses for a New Madrid Earthquake
INTRODUCTION In this time of federal budget cuts and program evaluations, a concern expressed by Congress is that socially important results of geologic and geophysical studies are not being disseminated to the public. With respect to earthquakes, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has responded to this concern in the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) by soliciting research proposals that focus on public education of earthquake hazards. This call by the USGS has prompted some new attempts to get information to the public. Individuals and emergency services organizations are active in a variety of earthquake hazard education programs. Of the various types of programs, we believe that a particularly effective means of earthquake education is achieved by the collaboration of an earth scientist with a specialist within a target population. In the example we document here, a nurse and a geologist collaborated in earthquake hazards education for registered nurses working...
LATE ABSTRACTS
COMPARISON OF RAYLEIGH-WAVE DISPERSION METHOD USING ARRAY MEASUREMENT OF MICROTREMORS AND DOWNHOLE LOGGING METHOD FOR DETERMINING SHEAR-WAVE VELOCITY PROFILES LIU, H.-P., BOORE, D.M., JOYNER, W.B., OPPENHEIMER, D.H., WARRICK, R.E., ZHANG W.1, and HAMILTON, J.C., U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA 94025, [email protected]; 1Permanent address: Beijing Strong-Motion Observation Center, State Seismological Bureau, Beijing 100080, CHINA In earthquake engineering, site characterization is often done in terms of an average shear-wave velocity over a given depth. Shear-wave velocities are best determined using direct downhole and crosshole methods. However, for these methods, the drilling and cutting disposal costs are high. Indirect and non-intrusive methods of measuring shear-wave velocities by inversion of Rayleigh-wave dispersion curves offer the possibility of obtaining equivalent data at much lower cost. While some seismologists and geotechnical engineers use active sources for surface-wave generation, many shear-wave profiles have been determined in Japan by inverting Rayleigh-wave dispersion curves obtained from...
Book review
“Shocks and Rocks - Seismology in the Plate Tectonics Revolution” by Jack Oliver
The American Geophysical Union's history committee continues to play a vital role in documenting the growth of geophysics. In this attractive, largely autobiographical book, Volume 6 of the History of Geophysics Series, Jack Oliver presents the story of seismology's contributions to the takeover of plate tectonics as the evolutionary descriptor in geology and geophysics. Although his emphasis is the decade of the 1960s, when he made his own valuable contributions, the book has three preliminary chapters on the pre- and three on the post-plate tectonics era. The preface sets out the various aims of the book. The first is an outline of the role of seismology in the construction of plate tectonics. The second is “not to add glory to the revolution and its participants but rather to describe just how science works when things are going well.” Another goal is to “sketch and trace certain streams of seismological efforts...
EASTERN SECTION
69th Annual Meeting of the Eastern Section of the SSA
Site: Market Square Inn, Ottawa, Canada Dates: October 5-8, 1997 Hosted by: Carleton University
Geological Survey of Canada
The Ottawa-Carleton Earthquake Engineering Research Centre Convenor: Gall Atkinson, Carleton University (613) 520-2600 Ext. 1399 Abstract Deadline: Friday August 29, 1997 Papers dealing with all aspects of seismicity, historical earthquakes, tectonics, seismic hazards, real-time seismology, earthquake source studies, induced earthquakes, wave propagation and earth models, public relations concerning earthquakes and earthquake engineering are cordially invited, especially those with applications to eastern North America. Special Theme Sessions: Seismic Hazard Assessment in Intraplate North America
What Earthquake Engineers Do (and Want) in Eastern North America
Earthquakes of the Charlevoix-Saguenay Region
Tectonics of the Lithosphere in Eastern North America
Seismicity Related to Industrial Activity
Seismologists and Earthquake Emergencies Further announcements with more details will be sent only to Eastern Section members. If you wish to receive more information and/or further announcements, please contact the meeting convenor or [email protected]. For more...
MEETING CALENDAR
MEETING CALENDAR
1997 May 27–30. American Geophysical Union 1997 Spring Meeting, Baltimore, MD. Sponsored by American Geophysical Union, Mineralogical Society of America, Geochemical Society. AGU Meetings Department, AGU, 2000 Florida Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20009; phone 202-462-6900 or 800-966-2481; fax 202-328-0566; e-mail [email protected]. Internet http://www.agu.org June 16–18. Fourth SIAM Conference on Geosciences, Albuquerque, New Mexico, USA. Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics (SIAM) Activity Group in Geosciences. Clint Dawson, Rice University and University of Texas, Austin. June 17–22. Chapman/CSEDI/JOI/USSSP Conference on The History and Dynamics of Global Plate Motions, Marconi Conference Center, Point Reyes National Seashore, Marshall, CA USA. The purpose of this conference is to bring together the plate reconstruction and mantle dynamics communities in order to foster innovative cross-disciplinary science, better integrate the geologic record of plate motions into geodynamic models, and bring a higher level of maturity to geodynamic models of the forces acting on...
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Cover Image
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