Over a hundred years ago, Svante Arrhenius (1896), building on earlier work of the French physicist Joseph Fourier, Tyndall (1861), Langley (1884), and others, was the first to model quantitatively the effects of changes in the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide on climate (Uppenbrink, 1996; Fleming, 1998). A “greenhouse theory”, or “hothouse theory” as it was then called (Arrhenius, 1908), thus was born and has stood the test of time pretty well since its 19th-century origins, despite falling out of favor for a brief period between 1900 and 1940 (...

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