A probabilistic method of appraisal of mineral resources is applied to a 17,000 square mile portion of the Grenville Province of the Canadian Shield. Regression and Bayesian classification models are formulated from geological data obtained in well prospected 100 square mile cells including known commercial deposits. These models provide predictions of ore values and probabilities of success for the cells of the study area. The expected dollar payoff is used to rate the exploration potential of these cells. As a result of the application of this procedure, eleven cells with a total predicted ore value of $425 million are selected for exploration by airborne and ground reconnaissance surveys.

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