—The dynamics of the seismic-energy structure state on the southwestern flank of the Baikal rift system (BRS) has been analyzed at three hierarchical levels based on the annual cumulative data on the earthquakes with energy class KR ≥ 8 for the period 1964–2013. Changes in the state are characterized by three key parameters: maximum energy class Kmax, the slope of the earthquake recurrence curve γ, and seismic activity A10. With an increase in the earthquake recurrence intervals and the quantity of the earthquakes analyzed, the parameters reach their maxima reflecting the regularity of earth shocks classification by long periods. Two attractors are clearly distinguished in the phase pattern, where they reflect general quasi-stationarity (limit cycle) and local instability (focus) of the seismic-energy structure. The specifics of the attractor formation suggest a cycle birth bifurcation (Andronov–Hopf bifurcation). For a detailed analysis of the dynamics of seismic-energy structure formation, the slopes of the earthquake recurrence rate curves were calculated in the simulation scenarios of “aftershocks” and “swarm” earth shocks. Comparison of the simulated and real changes in the earthquake recurrence rate slopes shows a correspondence of the “aftershock” model to the dynamics of the seismic-energy structure of the lithosphere on the BRS southwestern flank.

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