Abstract

Predictive models for the localization of soil liquefaction for seismic events with magnitudes Ms = 7.5 and 8.0 were constructed based on available data on a possible earthquake in the zone of the Main Sayan Fault. It has been established that for MS = 7.5, liquefaction will extend over a distance of 40 km from the causative seismogenic fault. For MS = 8.0, the limiting distance from the activated segment of the Main Sayan Fault will be 112 km. The calculation models take into account the effect of faults on the predicted process, which allows a more accurate identification of areas with different probabilities of this event. Zones of possible liquefaction at MS = 7.5 include the towns of Kultuk, Sludyanka, Baikal’sk, Arshan, and Podkamennaya. At MS = 8.0, the liquefaction process will spread over a large area including the cities of Usol’e-Sibirskoe, Angarsk, and Irkutsk, especially localities near the Angara River and its major tributaries. Similar evaluation can also be made for other natural situations with known seismogenic faults, fault-block divisibility of the Earth’s crust for the Pliocene–Quaternary stage of tectonism, earthquake magnitude, and potentially liquefiable soils within the model area.

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