Abstract

We use a Gaussian logistic regression model to characterize epoch-to-epoch and stage-tostage changes in the latitudinal response curves of Cenozoic marine bivalve and gastropod genera along the global latitudinal gradient, and analyze these changes to understand the mode and tempo of changes in latitudinal distribution. A ubiquitous ‘‘hollow curve’’ pattern is apparent, wherein smaller changes in response-curve parameters are much more common than larger changes. Curves are strikingly consistent in terms of the average level of change exhibited, despite the many unique environmental and biological changes documented between each of these intervals. This implies that the pace and magnitude of changes in the latitudinal distribution of marine mollusks are not controlled, in aggregate, by time-period-specific conditions. Additionally, we find no evidence for long-term migration from tropical to extratropical latitudes. Our results instead favor a model of either equatorward migration or no general trend. This likely reflects the tendency of genera to maintain their highest concentrations in the tropics even if their ranges become extended out of the tropics over time.

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