Abstract

Effective volcanic-risk management requires that prediction should cover time intervals comparable with the time-scale of human and social responses to them. Two main responses are: appropriate land-use and location of settlements (time-scale: decades); and emergency evacuation of danger zones (time-scale: days or hours). The first response may be optimized through volcanic zoning and risk assessment, based on the precise mapping and dating of previous events. The second demands the close cooperation or integration of scientists and civil defence in order (a) to define levels of risk and the corresponding social responses, (b) to define the time-scale and required accuracy of useful predictions, and (c) to devise appropriate monitoring systems.

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