Assessment of landslide risks requires an understanding of how future landslide behaviour (the hazard) could have an adverse impact on people, property and the environment (the consequences). However, what will happen in the future cannot be known precisely and often cannot be predicted with confidence. This ‘radical uncertainty’ results from incomplete knowledge about slope systems and their response to energy inputs (e.g. waves, rainfall, earthquakes). Probability is a measure of uncertainty. However, estimating landslide probability should not rely on ‘geology-free’ statistical models. The geology does matter. It will be necessary to make judgements based on an understanding of slope conditions and behaviour as well as historical data. This paper examines the way in which geomorphology and an understanding of slope behaviour are critical to landslide risk assessment in the presence of radical uncertainty. The focus is on predictions of landslide probability made for economic risk assessments on the UK's Yorkshire coast. This coast is associated with rapid cliff recession rates (e.g. the Holderness coast) and major landslide events (e.g. the Holbeck Hall landslide, Scarborough). However, the central messages of this paper can apply to landslide risk studies everywhere, both at the coast and inland.
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May 21, 2025
The 24th Glossop Lecture: Landslide risk assessment: radical uncertainty and engineering geomorphology Available to Purchase
E.M. Lee
1
Ebor Geoscience Limited
, York YO31 0QB, UK
Correspondence: [email protected]
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1
Ebor Geoscience Limited
, York YO31 0QB, UK
Correspondence: [email protected]
Publisher: Geological Society of London
Received:
04 Jan 2025
Revision Received:
25 Feb 2025
Accepted:
09 Mar 2025
First Online:
26 Mar 2025
Online ISSN: 2041-4803
Print ISSN: 1470-9236
© 2025 The Author(s). Published by The Geological Society of London. All rights, including for text and data mining (TDM), artificial intelligence (AI) training, and similar technologies, are reserved. For permissions: https://www.lyellcollection.org/publishing-hub/permissions-policy. Publishing disclaimer: https://www.lyellcollection.org/publishing-hub/publishing-ethics
© 2025 The Author(s)
Quarterly Journal of Engineering Geology and Hydrogeology (2025) 58 (2): qjegh2025-003.
Article history
Received:
04 Jan 2025
Revision Received:
25 Feb 2025
Accepted:
09 Mar 2025
First Online:
26 Mar 2025
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CitationE.M. Lee; The 24th Glossop Lecture: Landslide risk assessment: radical uncertainty and engineering geomorphology. Quarterly Journal of Engineering Geology and Hydrogeology 2025;; 58 (2): qjegh2025–003. doi: https://doi.org/10.1144/qjegh2025-003
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Index Terms/Descriptors
- cliffs
- England
- erosion
- Europe
- geologic hazards
- geomorphology
- Great Britain
- Holderness
- landslides
- mass movements
- mathematical methods
- natural hazards
- North Yorkshire England
- prediction
- probability
- processes
- protection
- risk assessment
- sea-level changes
- shorelines
- statistical analysis
- time factor
- uncertainty
- United Kingdom
- Western Europe
- Yorkshire England
- South Bay
- recession
- coastal erosion
- Scarborough England
- East Riding of Yorkshire England
- magnitude-frequency distribution
- Spaw landslide
- inland environment
- Holbeck Hall landslide
- radical uncertainty
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